Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 43.257301 51.158536 59.876508 70.179054 81.989721 95.073346 110.630324
2024-10-06 32.325686 42.944392 55.840914 72.522292 93.378517 118.432665 150.628246
2024-10-13 24.537401 35.772768 50.489453 70.894232 98.122771 132.837454 180.012105
2024-10-20 22.020091 34.538121 51.926890 77.348615 112.968999 160.419596 227.574909
2024-10-27 17.143391 28.970952 46.403520 73.265853 112.744684 167.607806 248.318327
2024-11-03 15.148910 27.247584 45.975982 76.100264 122.106023 188.225687 288.502873
2024-11-10 13.789314 26.245890 46.397555 80.070038 133.257514 211.965295 334.506244
2024-11-17 12.514573 25.141823 46.440386 83.321512 143.424853 234.784774 380.463941
2024-11-24 10.946590 23.243408 44.883183 83.722415 149.013540 250.919425 417.261620
2024-12-01 9.210923 20.726936 41.905971 81.344449 149.771429 259.459574 442.749671
2024-12-08 8.129831 19.281968 40.619905 81.675833 154.917286 275.088581 480.016411
2024-12-15 7.291951 18.182280 39.812529 82.723264 161.271053 292.938454 521.679269
2024-12-22 5.798369 15.537849 35.940184 78.196766 158.376453 296.819662 543.546428
2024-12-29 5.174204 14.729979 35.652968 80.547672 168.254854 323.349544 605.445786
2025-01-05 4.298676 13.116698 33.418267 78.741606 170.200690 336.231471 645.029800
2025-01-12 4.205871 13.443210 35.429410 85.806811 189.627419 381.319110 742.983710
2025-01-19 3.358329 11.566269 32.164884 81.336852 186.060149 384.565286 767.442063
2025-01-26 3.083678 11.209723 32.390571 84.440174 197.877490 416.868510 845.759736
2025-02-02 2.900455 11.078046 33.139044 88.784343 212.581009 455.483173 937.671077
2025-02-09 2.693344 10.822091 33.531837 92.340595 225.901574 492.236515 1028.071674
2025-02-16 2.374371 10.120458 32.651645 92.778964 232.567276 516.453785 1096.258309
2025-02-23 1.985583 9.063807 30.628546 90.178408 232.325939 526.967235 1138.916531
2025-03-02 1.752388 8.488516 29.841491 90.540863 238.683500 551.043990 1208.909627